According to The Kobeissi Letter citing Kalshi, the probability of a US recession in 2025 has decreased to 28%, the lowest level since February 28th. This shift is attributed to positive market sentiment following recent trade deal announcements, which has led to increased investor confidence in both traditional and digital assets. Traders are closely monitoring these macroeconomic developments as reduced recession fears often correlate with higher risk appetite, benefiting cryptocurrency markets through increased inflows and bullish momentum. Source: @KobeissiLetter, @Kalshi.

According to @KobeissiLetter citing @Kalshi, the probability of a US recession in 2025 has decreased to 28%, marking the lowest risk since February 28th. This shift is attributed to renewed optimism following recent trade deal announcements, which has driven risk-on sentiment across financial markets. For cryptocurrency traders, the reduction in recession odds suggests a potential tailwind for digital assets as risk appetite returns, potentially leading to increased inflows and volatility in Bitcoin, Ethereum, and altcoins as investors seek higher returns amid favorable macroeconomic signals. Source: @KobeissiLetter on Twitter, June 3, 2025.

According to The Kobeissi Letter citing Kalshi, the probability of a US recession in 2025 has sharply decreased to 38%, marking a 33 percentage point drop since late April. This reduction in recession risk signals improved economic outlooks, which typically support risk-on assets like cryptocurrencies. Traders may interpret this trend as a bullish signal for Bitcoin and altcoins, as lower recession odds often lead to increased liquidity and appetite for higher-yield assets (source: @KobeissiLetter, @Kalshi). Crypto market participants should monitor macroeconomic data closely for continued shifts in sentiment.

According to The Kobeissi Letter, recession odds in the US have become the base case scenario as indicated by a sharp increase in the 1-year recession probability priced by the S&P 500 earnings yield and the BBB-rated corporate bond spread (source: @KobeissiLetter, April 30, 2025). For traders, this signals heightened market volatility and potential downward pressure on both traditional equities and correlated crypto assets. Monitoring the S&P 500 earnings yield and corporate bond spreads can provide actionable signals for risk management and sector rotation strategies as an economic slowdown materializes.